|w_a|

dark-energy evolution

Prediction	< 10⁻⁴
Measured	DESI central value 3σ from zero
Residual	open
Status	open
Source paper	DCT-COS-01

Mechanism

Avrami P(z) treatment gives w_a deviations at second order in (1 − P(z)/P_0). DESI central w_a is 3σ from zero AND 3σ from ΛCDM — both pending DR2 reanalysis.

Derivation

Avrami P(z) treatment gives w_a deviations at second order in (1 − P(z)/P_0). DESI central w_a is 3σ from zero AND 3σ from ΛCDM — both pending DR2 reanalysis.

The closed-form prediction is

$$ \text{predicted} = < 10⁻⁴ $$

against the measurement DESI central value 3σ from zero, giving residual open.

Python verification

The verification script for this observable is pantheon_supernova_analysis.py. Run it with python3 pantheon_supernova_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed above (DESI Y1 BAO; awaiting DR2.).

Methodology

Domain	Cosmology (COS)
Input data source	See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. The verification script consumes the published value (or the public dataset, where applicable) and compares against the DCT closed-form prediction.
Measurement procedure	The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference; no internal recalibration is applied.
Acceptance threshold	HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement, residual within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved.
Falsification threshold	MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-$P_0$) treatment.
Current status	See the verdict pill in the prediction table above.

Cross-references

Related observables in the same domain: w-0 · pantheon-supernovae.

Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.

Audit notes

Status post-: this observable's verdict above reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-$P_0$) treatment. Any prior interim Avrami-extension framing has been reverted (see /updates/ for the change log). The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-COS-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.

References

DESI Collaboration 2024
Source paper: DCT-COS-01

Back to all observables or the predictions table.