Pantheon+ supernovae

Type Ia supernovae distance modulus — DCT and ΛCDM tie at the SN Ia level.

Prediction	\(\mu(z)\) with \(w_0 = -1\), \(\|w_a\| < 10^{-4}\); identical to ΛCDM in this band
Measured	1701 SNe Ia, Brout et al. 2022 (Pantheon+ DR1)
Residual	0.0σ
Status	Tied
Source paper	DCT-COS-01

Mechanism

DCT predicts a dark-energy equation of state \(w_0 = -1\) with \(|w_a| < 10^{-4}\) from the canonical action: the tie-field potential \(V(P) = \rho_\Lambda\) acts as a cosmological constant in the Jordan frame, so the SN Ia Hubble diagram inherits the ΛCDM shape exactly. The residual against Pantheon+ DR1 is \(0\sigma\).

Derivation

From the canonical action with \(V(P_0) = \rho_\Lambda\), the dark-energy equation of state is \(w(z) = -1\) at all redshifts to leading order in \((1-P_0)\). The SN Ia distance modulus \(\mu(z) = 5\log_{10}(d_L(z)/10\,\text{pc})\) inherits the ΛCDM \(d_L(z)\); the Pantheon+ 1701-SN sample is consistent with this prediction at \(0\sigma\).

Python verification

The verification script for this observable is pantheon_supernova_analysis.py. Run it with python3 pantheon_supernova_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed above.

Methodology

Domain	Cosmology (COS)
Input data source	See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. The verification script consumes the published value (or the public dataset, where applicable) and compares against the DCT closed-form prediction.
Measurement procedure	The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference; no internal recalibration is applied.
Acceptance threshold	HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement, residual within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved.
Falsification threshold	MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment.
Current status	See the verdict pill in the prediction table above.

Cross-references

Related observables in the same domain: w-0 · w-a · sh0es-h0.

Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.

Audit notes

Status post-: this observable's verdict above reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. Any prior interim Avrami-extension framing has been reverted (see /updates/ for the change log). The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-COS-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.

References

Brout et al. 2022 (Pantheon+)
Source paper: DCT-COS-01

Back to all observables or the predictions table.