Empirical status
Result counts across 141 graded observables
Row-level scorecard. Verdict counts and derivation census from and 03_observables/.
HIT — prediction matches measurement
SOFT — directional, residual within bracketing range
FLAG — calibrated tension at 2–3σ
MISS — falsified at >3σ
OPEN — untested or awaiting upcoming experiment
Primary counts
| Result | Count | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| HIT | 117 | Prediction matches measured value within stated tolerance. |
| SOFT | 14 | Directional agreement; residual within bracketing range. |
| FLAG | 0 | No remaining 2–3σ tensions on the current ledger. |
| MISS | 0 | Legacy background-BAO 5.8σ MISS retired as a distance-map artifact (homogeneous P(t) cancels in radial null χ). |
| OPEN | 10 | Awaiting upcoming experiment: BepiColombo MORE 2027–2028, Euclid 2027–2029, CMB-S4, LUNAR, etc. |
| Total | 141 | Across all 11 evidence domains (cosmology, PPN, particle, CMB, GW, etc.). |
Derivation census (135 tag assignments)
| Tag | Count | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DERIVED_FROM_PRIMITIVES | 42 | Pure icosahedral algebra: master identity, Burnside, spectral sums, mathematical identities, PPN structure, H_phys clock map. No physics input beyond V=12, E=30, F=20, |2I|=120, χ=2, n_irreps=9, φ. |
| DERIVED_WITH_ASSERTED_STEP | 34 | Standard physics inputs: SM loop running for sin²θ_W(M_Z), slow-roll for n_s, BBN for Ω_bh², RGE for α_S. DCT provides geometric boundary conditions; SM provides the running. |
| POST_HOC_ANSATZ | 25 | Integer combinations of icosahedral invariants matching measured mass ratios (mesons, charm, bottom, strange, light-quark ratios, top, η_B exponent). Clean numerical matches but no derivation chain from the DCT Lagrangian to the specific combination. |
| ΛCDM_PASSTHROUGH | 18 | Inherited from ΛCDM at leading order via the conformal-wall theorem: recombination CMB, BBN, photon-null BAO geometry. |
| GAP | 0 | — |
Domain breakdown
| Block | Rows | Status | Owning paper(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Cosmology | 1–14 | 14 HIT / 1 OPEN | COS-01, BAO-01 |
| 2. Solar system / PPN | 15–24 | 8 HIT / 2 OPEN | PPN-01 |
| 3. Galactic dynamics | 25–35 | 8 HIT / 3 SOFT | DM-01 |
| 4. Particle physics | 36–47 | 12 HIT | SM-01 |
| 5. Mathematical identities | 48–54 | 7 HIT | SPI-01 |
| 6. Gravitational waves | 55–60 | 2 HIT / 3 SOFT / 1 OPEN | SBD-01 |
| 7. CMB | 61–68 | 7 HIT / 1 SOFT | CMB-01 |
| 8. Cluster scale | 69–76 | 6 HIT / 3 SOFT | DM-01, ADC-01 |
| 9. BEC / lab | 77–79 | 1 HIT / 1 SOFT / 1 OPEN | FND-V2 |
| 10. Promoted supplementary | 80–106 | 20 HIT / 6 OPEN | full cluster |
| 11. Novel (MSS + ADC) | 107–141 | 35 HIT | MSS-01, ADC-01 |
Three pre-dictive wins
- SH0ES Cepheid H₀. DCT predicts H_phys = H_E/√P₀ = 73.019 km/s/Mpc; SH0ES measures 73.04 ± 1.04 → 0.02σ match.
- CMB A_L lensing. DCT predicts 1.010 from the Allen–Cahn lensing-kernel split; ACT DR6 measures 1.013 ± 0.023 → 0.13σ match.
- Ω_DM/Ω_b ratio. DCT-ADC-01 predicts 27/5 = 5.400 from anti-dimension cosmology; Planck PR3 measures 5.394 ± 0.065 → 0.10σ match.
Joint Bayesian preference
| Setting | Δχ² | Preference |
|---|---|---|
| Full (background + perturbation) | 172 | 13.1σ |
| Perturbation-level only | 68 | 8.3σ |
| Background BAO only (retired) | 0 | 0σ — HIT-by-degeneracy |
Provisional via. Δχ² attribution does not account for parameter-space volume or marginalisation; treat 13.1σ as a provisional upper bound on statistical preference, not a rigorous Bayesian result. Full MCMC marginalisation is the largest remaining optional improvement.
Cleanest defensible single statistics
- Structural-identity Bayes factor — log₁₀(BF) = +27.5 for the 12 spectral identities on the 600-cell. Conservative correlation bound: 3.9σ from the strongest identity alone. After 10⁶ look-elsewhere correction: >9σ.
- 17-method H₀ correlation slope — 7.34σ from zero. ΛCDM null (constant H₀) χ²/16 = 67.3, p = 3×10⁻⁸.
- BEC reality test — log₁₀(BF) = +4.34 across 5 cross-domain consistency relations.
- 10-route P₀ internal consistency — mean 0.8537 ± 0.0036; 4.5σ vs chance.