Observable detail · COS
Planck \(\tau_{\rm reion}\)
| Prediction / mechanism | \(\tau_{\rm reion}\) shifted upward by \(\sim\!15\%\) by the JWST z\(>\)10 galaxy abundance excess; tracking with current EE measurements. |
|---|---|
| Measured | Planck 2018 EE \(\tau = 0.054 \pm 0.007\). |
| Residual / status | SOFT — directional agreement with JWST excess |
| Status | SOFT |
| Source paper | DCT-COS-01 |
Mechanism
JWST z\(>\)10 galaxy excess implies earlier reionisation onset; DCT predicts the upward shift in \(\tau\).
Derivation
The derivation chain follows the cluster paper DCT-COS-01 and reduces to the canonical DCT constants (\(P_0 = 0.851\), \(\omega_0 = 50{,}037\), \(c_{BD} = 138{,}189\), master identity \(2\omega_0 + 3 = c_{BD} \cdot P_0^2 = 100{,}077\)). See the cluster paper for the full multi-line derivation.
Methodology
| Domain | Cosmology (COS) |
|---|---|
| Input data source | See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. |
| Measurement procedure | The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference. |
| Acceptance threshold | HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved. |
| Falsification threshold | MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. |
| Current status | See verdict pill above. |
Python verification
Verification script: cmb_analysis.py. Run with python3 cmb_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed below.
Cross-references
Related observables: reionization-history · jwst-early-galaxies · planck-ee-tau.
Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.
Audit notes
This sub-page is part of the post-build-out of the observable archive (see the observable index). Verdict reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-COS-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.
References
- Planck Collaboration 2020 (EE)
- JWST 2023+
- Source paper: DCT-COS-01
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