Observable detail · GR
NANOGrav 30-yr (forward, ~2030)
| Prediction / mechanism | Forward; the longer baseline will reach \(\dot\omega_b\) sensitivity \(\sim\!3\times\) better than the 15-yr release, fully discriminating DCT-SBD from \(\Lambda\)CDM-tagged GR. |
|---|---|
| Measured | NANOGrav 30-yr release expected \(\sim 2030\). |
| Residual / status | OPEN / FORWARD |
| Status | OPEN |
| Source paper | DCT-SBD-01 |
Mechanism
SBD theorem (DCT-SBD-01) gives a closed bound on \(\dot\omega_b\); 30-yr NANOGrav will resolve at the canonical DCT-SBD level.
Derivation
The derivation chain follows the cluster paper DCT-SBD-01 and reduces to the canonical DCT constants (\(P_0 = 0.851\), \(\omega_0 = 50{,}037\), \(c_{BD} = 138{,}189\), master identity \(2\omega_0 + 3 = c_{BD} \cdot P_0^2 = 100{,}077\)). See the cluster paper for the full multi-line derivation.
Methodology
| Domain | Solar-system / strong-gravity (GR) |
|---|---|
| Input data source | See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. |
| Measurement procedure | The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference. |
| Acceptance threshold | HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved. |
| Falsification threshold | MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. |
| Current status | See verdict pill above. |
Python verification
Verification script: dct_nanograv_spectrum.py. Run with python3 dct_nanograv_spectrum.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed below.
Cross-references
Related observables: nanograv-gw-background · sbd-pulsar · double-pulsar-7pk.
Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.
Audit notes
This sub-page is part of the post-build-out of the observable archive (see the observable index). Verdict reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-SBD-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.
References
- NANOGrav Collaboration
- Source paper: DCT-SBD-01
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