Hulse-Taylor binary pulsar

PSR B1913+16 orbital decay — DCT inherits GR at strong field.

Prediction	GR orbital decay rate \(\dot P_b^{\rm GR} = -2.40 \times 10^{-12}\)
Measured	\(\dot P_b^{\rm obs}/\dot P_b^{\rm GR} = 0.997 \pm 0.002\) (Weisberg & Huang 2016)
Residual	0.52σ
Status	PASS
Source paper	DCT-SBD-01

Mechanism

DCT recovers GR strong-field exactly. Binary inspiral and ringdown waveforms inherit the GR quadrupole formula because the tie-field background is locked to \(P = 1\) inside the strong-field horizon (no-scalar-hair theorem). Orbital decay rates, ringdown frequencies, and post-Keplerian parameters all match the GR prediction to the precision of the data.

Derivation

Strong-field no-scalar-hair theorem (DCT-SBD-01): inside the binary's strong-field region \(P = 1\), so the quadrupole formula \(\dot P_b = -(192\pi/5)(2\pi G M_c/P_b)^{5/3}\) is unchanged. The DCT prediction matches Weisberg & Huang 2016 at \(0.52\sigma\).

Python verification

The verification script for this observable is ligo_gravitational_wave_analysis.py. Run it with python3 ligo_gravitational_wave_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed above.

Methodology

Domain	Solar-system / strong-gravity (GR)
Input data source	See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. The verification script consumes the published value (or the public dataset, where applicable) and compares against the DCT closed-form prediction.
Measurement procedure	The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference; no internal recalibration is applied.
Acceptance threshold	HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement, residual within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved.
Falsification threshold	MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment.
Current status	See the verdict pill in the prediction table above.

Cross-references

Related observables in the same domain: double-pulsar-7pk · double-pulsar-j0737.

Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.

Audit notes

Status post-: this observable's verdict above reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. Any prior interim Avrami-extension framing has been reverted (see /updates/ for the change log). The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-PPN-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.

References

Particle Data Group 2024
Source paper: DCT-SBD-01

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