GWTC-3 BBH population

LIGO/Virgo BBH catalog — DCT inherits GR for the full sample.

Prediction	GR waveforms; merger rate \(R = 23.9^{+14}_{-9}\) Gpc⁻³ yr⁻¹
Measured	LVC GWTC-3 90 confident BBH events
Residual	0.00σ
Status	PASS
Source paper	DCT-SBD-01

Mechanism

DCT recovers GR strong-field exactly. Binary inspiral and ringdown waveforms inherit the GR quadrupole formula because the tie-field background is locked to \(P = 1\) inside the strong-field horizon (no-scalar-hair theorem). Orbital decay rates, ringdown frequencies, and post-Keplerian parameters all match the GR prediction to the precision of the data.

Derivation

Each of the 90 GWTC-3 BBH events fits the GR template at the precision of the data; the no-scalar-hair theorem implies the same template in DCT. Population-level chirp-mass and spin distributions are unchanged from GR + standard astrophysical priors.

Python verification

The verification script for this observable is ligo_gravitational_wave_analysis.py. Run it with python3 ligo_gravitational_wave_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed above.

Methodology

Domain	Solar-system / strong-gravity (GR)
Input data source	See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. The verification script consumes the published value (or the public dataset, where applicable) and compares against the DCT closed-form prediction.
Measurement procedure	The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference; no internal recalibration is applied.
Acceptance threshold	HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement, residual within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved.
Falsification threshold	MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment.
Current status	See the verdict pill in the prediction table above.

Cross-references

Related observables in the same domain: ligo-gw150914-ringdown · ligo-hf-residuals.

Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.

Audit notes

Status post-: this observable's verdict above reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. Any prior interim Avrami-extension framing has been reverted (see /updates/ for the change log). The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-PPN-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.

References

LIGO GWTC-3
Source paper: DCT-SBD-01

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