Observable detail · FORWARD
DESI Y3 BAO 2026 (forward)
| Prediction / mechanism | Forward: DESI Y3 tightens \(D_M/r_d\), \(D_H/r_d\). Homogeneous conformal \(P(t)\) still cancels from radial null \(\chi(z)\) (/observables/bao/); tests of extensions use perturbation / inhomogeneous channels. |
|---|---|
| Measured | DESI Y3 release 2026. |
| Residual / status | OPEN / FORWARD |
| Status | OPEN |
| Source paper | DCT-BAO-01 |
Mechanism
Placeholder for the DESI Year-3 window: background \(\chi(z)\) under homogeneous \(P\) remains degenerate with \(\Lambda\)CDM at fixed \(H(z)\); Y3 sharpens the data against any new degrees of freedom (inhomogeneous \(P\), disformal couplings), not the retracted uniform \(D_M\) rescaling.
Derivation
The derivation chain follows the cluster paper DCT-BAO-01 and reduces to the canonical DCT constants (\(P_0 = 0.851\), \(\omega_0 = 50{,}037\), \(c_{BD} = 138{,}189\), master identity \(2\omega_0 + 3 = c_{BD} \cdot P_0^2 = 100{,}077\)). See the cluster paper for the full multi-line derivation.
Methodology
| Domain | Forward experiment (FORWARD) |
|---|---|
| Input data source | See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. |
| Measurement procedure | The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference. |
| Acceptance threshold | HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved. |
| Falsification threshold | MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. |
| Current status | See verdict pill above. |
Python verification
Verification script: dct_desi_bao_test.py. Run with python3 dct_desi_bao_test.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed below.
Cross-references
Related observables: desi-y3-bao · bao.
Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.
Audit notes
This sub-page is part of the post-build-out of the observable archive (see the observable index). Verdict reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-BAO-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.
References
- DESI Collaboration 2026
- Source paper: DCT-BAO-01
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