Observable detail · COS
CMB-S4 tensor-to-scalar ratio \(r\) (forward)
| Prediction / mechanism | Forward; DCT predicts \(r \lesssim 10^{-3}\) under the conformal-wall theorem (no measurable inflationary tensor amplification). |
|---|---|
| Measured | CMB-S4 first-light expected \(\sim\!2030\). |
| Residual / status | OPEN / FORWARD |
| Status | OPEN |
| Source paper | DCT-CMB-01 |
Mechanism
Conformal-wall theorem suppresses primordial tensor contributions at the wall.
Derivation
The derivation chain follows the cluster paper DCT-CMB-01 and reduces to the canonical DCT constants (\(P_0 = 0.851\), \(\omega_0 = 50{,}037\), \(c_{BD} = 138{,}189\), master identity \(2\omega_0 + 3 = c_{BD} \cdot P_0^2 = 100{,}077\)). See the cluster paper for the full multi-line derivation.
Methodology
| Domain | Cosmology (COS) |
|---|---|
| Input data source | See "References" below for the canonical public-archive citation. |
| Measurement procedure | The measured value used here is the most recent peer-reviewed central value plus 1σ uncertainty from the cited reference. |
| Acceptance threshold | HIT: residual within 1σ of measurement. SOFT: directional agreement within bracketing range. OPEN: untested or unresolved. |
| Falsification threshold | MISS: prediction excluded at ≥3σ by the canonical measurement under the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. |
| Current status | See verdict pill above. |
Python verification
Verification script: cmb_analysis.py. Run with python3 cmb_analysis.py to reproduce the canonical DCT result against the public-archive measurement source listed below.
Cross-references
Related observables: planck-cmb-tt · cmb-low-quadrupole · planck-a-l.
Aggregate views: /predictions/ · /scorecard/ · /empirical/ · /outstanding-problems/.
Audit notes
This sub-page is part of the post-build-out of the observable archive (see the observable index). Verdict reflects the corpus-canonical (constant-\(P_0\)) treatment. The cluster-paper deep-link above (DCT-CMB-01) is the canonical source of the derivation chain.
References
- CMB-S4 Collaboration
- Source paper: DCT-CMB-01
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